Futures
The long game
Every regular-season game, every conference tournament, the committee's bracket, then March: simulated 2,000 times. Each chance becomes a fair price with no vig; once a book posts its price, the edge shows next to it.
Our % = share of 2,000 simulated seasons. Fair odds = that chance as a price with no vig: bet it only when the book pays more. Edge = our % minus the book's % with the vig removed across the whole market.
Reg. season = win or share the regular-season title; Outright = win it alone. Tournament = win the league's real conference tournament bracket and the automatic bid.
Line is our number: the half-point that splits our simulated seasons closest to 50/50. When a book hangs a different number, the side it moved away from is the value.
Simulated from each player's projected line and his team's projected record, calibrated on past winners (the model picked the National POY 14 of 19 times since 2007).