Player props
The prop board
Per-minute production drifts back toward a player's own career. Players coming off a down year bounce back; players coming off a spike regress. We tested it on two full seasons.
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Our proj = our expected line for this game (projection blended with this season's games, x minutes, x pace and the opponent's defense). Books imply = the average the market's prices point to. Our chance blends the two, so a gap has to be real to show up. Best = the best price across every book at its own line, with its expected value per $1.
| # | Player | Team | Line | Pick | Vs his norm | Cleared it | Last yr | Proj ’26-27 | Minutes | Range | |
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Bounce-back overs: last season ran at 85% or less of his earlier per-minute pace. Regression unders: 125% or more. Line = last season's pace × projected minutes, the number a book anchored on last year would hang. Value movers = biggest gaps between our projection and his career average. The backtest compares against that naive line, not real book props; we compare against the books' numbers once props are posted.
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Pick a player to see his averages, range, our 2026-27 projection, and how often he clears any line you type.