Every recruiting class since 2009, checked against what the players actually became in college and the NBA, plus how well each recruiting service called it.
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Class
Verdict
Ranked
Hype check
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Recruiting site report card
How closely each service's top-100 order matched what the players became, class by class. 1.00 would be a perfect call; 0 is a coin flip.
#
Service
Classes
Called it (rank match)
Top-10 hits / class
Top-25 busts / class
Best class
Worst class
Class by class
Rank match per class. Green = the best call that year, red = the worst.
Biggest misses
Each service's highest-ranked picks who turned out the furthest below the hype.
#
Player
Class
Their rank
Consensus
College
Hype check
How this works.Consensus rank is each recruit's average rank across the services that ranked his class (RSCI's per-service lists, plus the 247 Composite).
What he became blends his college career (Wins Added) with his NBA career (minutes, with draft slot breaking ties for players who barely played). Each is a percentile within his class, and the better of the two counts 70%,
so an elite four-year college player and a one-and-done NBA starter both count as living up to the hype. Expected is what recruits ranked around him scored across every finished class.
Verdicts: Outplayed it / Fell short = 20+ points above or below expected; Steal = ranked outside the top 60, scored 85+; Bust = top-25 recruit who scored under 30.
Classes still in college (the last three) are marked "too early". Only classes from 2009 on are judged, since our college stats start with the 2009-10 season.