Possessions are rebuilt from ESPN play-by-play: every shot, free throw, rebound and turnover belongs to the team with the ball, and a possession is a run of those events by one team. Its points are that team's points inside the run, free throws included.
First chance: a field-goal attempt before the shooting team's first offensive rebound of the possession (one per possession). Second-chance points are everything the shooting team scored later in that same possession after the miss, including free throws.
Opponent PPP is the opponent's points on the very next possession: after a make (a dead-ball inbound, an and-one free throw stays with the shot's possession), or after the defensive rebound of a miss. League PPP is the season's points per possession across every D-I game.
Opponent cost per attempt = make% × (opponent PPP after makes − league PPP) + miss% × defensive-rebound share × (opponent PPP after defensive rebounds − league PPP). Negative is a benefit: the opponent scored less than an average possession. It covers only the immediate next possession, not the one after a second chance.
Own scoring per attempt = 2 or 3 × make% + miss% × second-chance points per miss. Made-field-goal points exclude the and-one free throw. Scoring minus cost is partial accounting, not a net rating or a shot-quality model.
Shot zones: rim = layups, dunks, tip-ins and any two inside 4 feet; short midrange 5–14 feet; long midrange 15+ feet inside the arc; three = any three-point attempt. Distance comes from the play text, else the shot coordinates. A two-point jumper with neither (most of 2024–25's play-by-play) gets its own Mid (no dist.) row instead of being dropped.
Position is ESPN's roster position for that game (guard, forward, center). Team is the shooting team. Only D-I vs D-I games. Small samples are unadjusted; rows under 150 attempts are greyed. The vertical tick on each bar is the D-I average when a filter is on.